It looks like it will be nearly four years until we’re going back to the polls again in a federal election.
The federal Liberals and New Democratic Party have announced that they have come together on a new partnership that will see the NDP support the Liberals’ budget and other motions over the next few years, in exchange for the Liberals’ support on such fronts as national dental care and pharmacare.
We don’t know if the Liberals will have to cave to the NDP on other matters, such as economic and environmental issues. My guess is that the NDP propping up the Liberals will have other requirements that have yet to be disclosed.
This is not a coalition government. Many will see it as such, particularly supporters of the Conservative Party, the Bloc Quebecois and other parties that are understandably fuming. But if it was a coalition, Jagmeet Singh and other NDP MPs would have cabinet posts.
It’s also worth noting that this could eventually unravel. The two parties are talking a good game about this lasting for the next three years. But we all know that three can be an eternity in politics.
This might seem like a good idea for the Liberals and the NDP right now, and it might work for a while, but that doesn’t mean it will have staying power. All it takes is one spat, one scandal, for everything to fall apart, and we will be back to where we were after the last election.
There are a couple of positives associated with this if the partnership has staying power. For starters, it means that we won’t be going back to the polls until 2025. We don’t have to worry about a snap election being called. Six months ago, we paid $621 million for the status quo because Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had a desperate need for a majority government.
For supporters of the federal Conservatives, the upshot is the next Tory leader gets time to establish himself or herself as leader. This individual won’t have to worry about an election 12 months after becoming leader, which was one of the strikes for former Conservative leader Erin O’Toole.
At the same time, this arrangement would give the Liberals time to find a new leader if Trudeau decides to step down. By the time 2025 rolls around, he will have been prime minister for nearly 10 years – an eternity in this era.
And after two straight minority governments in which the Liberals lost the popular vote, many believe he’s taken the Liberals as far as he can. Trudeau could resign as PM, and the Liberals could find a new leader and still have time to get ready for the 2025 vote.
Defenders of the Liberal-NDP arrangement will point out that the combined vote total for the two parties in the 2021 election was more than 50 per cent, and they’ll say it’s proof the majority of voters support this.
But there isn’t a single Canadian who voted for a Liberal-NDP candidate. They voted for a Liberal. Or they voted for an NDP. Not both.
And while many would tell you they would welcome this, or even a coalition if necessary, there are a lot of Liberal voters who want nothing to do with the NDP, and a lot of NDP supporters, opposed to a partnership with the Liberals, even if Trudeau has taken the Liberals on a shift towards the left.
Those who voted for the NDP should be delighted. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has given the party more influence than it has ever had. They`re going to get two social programs that likely wouldn`t have happened otherwise. And there might be other goodies in the basket over the next three years to keep the NDP happy.
People will note that other arrangements and coalitions have had negative consequences for at least one side. Just look at what happened to the Saskatchewan Liberal Party after they formed a coalition with the NDP after the 1999 provincial election. The Liberals have not won a seat in this province since then. But this is very different from what the federal Liberals and NDP are doing now.
From a budgeting perspective, it`s likely only going to make a bad situation worse. The Liberals have failed to hand down a balanced budget since winning the 2015 election. With a dental care program and pharmacare on the way, do not expect that to change.
If this relationship does hold up to 2015, the next few years will indeed be long for many Canadians.
