In late 2010 we spoke about the possibilities of 2011 being a year of big growth and excitement and it lived up to expectations, at least on the social and economic fronts.
What has surprised us though, are the latest population numbers coming down from the statistics end of the health ministry regarding people in Estevan and area who are carrying Saskatchewan Health Services cards. Their numbers indicate that the Energy City's population has shrunk slightly during the past few months. Earlier health card numbers showed that Estevan could boast of a population of nearly 12,900 and the current count tells us it is now closer to 12,300. There is another round of figures that support the population drop case though, and that is the fact that student enrolments in Estevan schools have also declined slightly compared with 2009 and 2010.
We feel there are a couple of explanations for these scenarios since we have not seen any major declines in demand for housing and the job market continues to be wide open.
With new multi-dwelling units hitting the market and being gobbled up in rapid-fire order, we find it difficult to believe that Estevan's population shrinkage is anything but temporary.
What may have happened is that job seekers and newly hired personnel have simply not switched their Alberta or Ontario health card registration status, just like they haven't switched out their former Alberta, Ontario, Manitoba based vehicle registrations. The number of work vehicles plying the highways and byways around Estevan that are still bearing Alberta licence plates is significant and the same can probably be said of their owners/operators. They haven't switched their official designation either.
For some it may be time pressure. For others, it may be a thought process. They believe they are here only temporarily, that in three, six or nine months they'll be gone ... reassigned to an Alberta or Manitoba operation by the company or they have a family back in Calgary or Medicine Hat and that, to them, it is still home, so why switch the card ... why make it official?
Our ongoing housing crunch could well be a good reason why the school population has diminished slightly. Girlfriends, wives or husbands and kids won't be able to settle in if the only available room is a hotel, motel or work camp ... no matter how comfortable it may be. If they already have stable and comfortable digs in Lethbridge, why move into a city with a housing availability and high cost factor looming over it?
We have battled this situation before. In fact we often boast about the transient nature of our citizens. A long-term resident may now be somebody who wasn't even here for the floods last summer, which brings us to the third good reason why our population may have suffered. The floods not only created a major emotional upheaval, but they also caused some big shifts in economic activity and the ensuing shift in labour.
We expect that 2012 will bring forth some real solutions to the housing crisis and with Mother Nature co-operating a little, we might be able to recoup some of those economic losses in the oil, agriculture and mining sector. With the major clean coal construction project about to be ramped up in 2012, we see this miniature population slump, as disquieting as it may seem to be at first, as just a mini-blip on this city's growth graph.
