The 2024 provincial election might be nearly 16 months away, but the efforts for the vote are seemingly already underway in what will be known as the Estevan-Big Muddy constituency.
The Saskatchewan Party nominated Lori Carr to be its candidate in this riding. Carr will be seeking her third straight term as an MLA, and hopes to continue the Saskatchewan Party's reign in this constituency.
It was a rather quiet nomination meeting, as only a few people were present. Carr was unopposed, so it's not like there was any suspense. It was over in three minutes. There was no guest speaker. No controversial comments during a victory speech.
We know it's June and it was a beautiful night outside, but still, it would have been nice to have a few more people present.
When Carr won the Saskatchewan Party's nomination in 2015 in a hard-fought battle with Estevan Mayor Roy Ludwig, the prevailing thought was that she would have her toughest fight in winning the nomination. Ah, for the days of a nomination meeting like that.
As for 2024, Carr has the incumbent's advantage over any opponent and the backing of the powerful party if she finds herself in a tight race. It would be an upset if she lost. But expect tougher competition next fall.
Phil Zajac, who finished second to Carr in 2020 while running for the Buffalo Party of Saskatchewan, is now the party's leader. He has said he will run in Estevan next year.
Both Zajac and the party will be more of a known quantity next time around. You have to remember the BPS was only a few months old in 2020.
The new Saskatchewan United Party is also on the scene. We'll see if they have a candidate here. If they do, it will be another right-of-centre candidate to cut into Carr's support.
In the last provincial election in 2020, Carr was re-elected, but she had 62 per cent, the lowest share of the popular vote for a Sask. Party candidate since Doreen Eagles in 2003. It was still a convincing victory, but not at 70 per cent support that we saw in previous elections.
We're not saying that there will be a three-way vote split and the New Democratic Party will win but a new right-wing party could further erode Carr's support.
As for our former natural governing party, the NDP, their current leader, Carla Beck, has been trying to undo the damage caused by former leader Ryan Meili in rural Saskatchewan. She has a lot of work to do.
Hopefully, the NDP can find someone from the riding for the next election. The candidate in 2020 was a parachute from Weyburn who didn't exactly win people over. People were surprised when the Buffalo Party finished ahead of the NDP in Estevan, but anyone who watched the all-candidates forum before the election could see the result coming a mile away. The combination of an out-of-riding candidate and Meili's leadership turned off a lot of voters down here.
We'll see what some of the other parties – the Saskatchewan Green Party, the Progressive Conservatives and the Saskatchewan Liberals – have for local candidates down here.
There's one other variable to account for. It will be a new riding, a much bigger riding. How will people in Radville and other communities respond to the candidates and their platforms? Will they follow the trends we see here? Or will they be more open to someone else?
The further you move away from Estevan, the greater change you see in issues. What's important to us might not register as a concern in Radville.
Candidates will have to spend a lot more time on the road next year.
There's definitely going to be some interesting things to watch over the next 16 months.
