The speculation has been rampant in recent months as to whether Canadians will be going back to the polls this fall.
In fact, pundits have been waiting for an election to be triggered since the early spring, before the federal budget was handed down. The federal Liberals survived that confidence vote, and other confidence votes, and now we’re into the summer months.
You can’t fault the Liberals for wanting a vote. Governing parties have done very well in pandemic elections. We’ve seen provincial elections in which the New Democratic Party in B.C. and the Progressive Conservatives in New Brunswick grew their support from a minority to majority government.
And, of course, we saw the Saskatchewan Party win another convincing majority government during a pandemic-era election in this province.
In fact, the only governing party to see its support slide in an election during the pandemic was in the Yukon Territory.
It is incredible that despite all of the calls for people to stay home, we’ve had five provincial elections and one territorial election in the past 17 months. And not all of them were scheduled.
This is why Prime Minister Justin Trudeau wants an election. While we’ve all found at least one or two reasons to be frustrated with the way in which the feds have handled the last 17 months, we also have to remember that the government had to be reactionary.
They had no real opportunity to plan for this. They had to make decisions while contending with a virus that we knew little about. And at times, it has showed in their decisions.
But for those who lost their job for a reason that had nothing to do with performance or ability, they needed a way to pay the bills. And the government provided that means, even if there were mistakes along the way.
The polling data has been favourable to the Liberals, with some indicating they might be in position for a majority government.
And so if you’re Justin Trudeau, and you’ve shown an ability to be a strong campaigner in the past, you want to be out on the campaign trail.
Support for the Conservatives has been lower, but you have to wonder where they have lost votes. If it’s in rural ridings in the Prairies, where they have lots of wiggle room, then it might not be so bad.
They captured 84.4 per cent of the popular vote in Souris-Moose Mountain in the last federal election. Even if that support slips to 50 per cent, because of the rise of more right wing voting options, or anger with Tory leader Erin O’Toole’s proposed carbon pricing, that’s still a Tory victory.
(And it’s unlikely the Tories would see their support slip by that much).
If the Tories are losing ground in the bigger cities, well, that would be a bigger issue.
It’s unlikely the Liberals will make gains in Saskatchewan, unless one of the Regina or Saskatoon ridings turns red. The federal Liberals decision to snub Saskatchewan’s carbon price system, while allowing a similar scheme in New Brunswick to proceed, should only further infuriate people in this province.
The other question is whether Canadians want to be back at the polls. Our last election was two years ago. The government has been so focused on COVID that it hasn’t been able to do much else.
And while COVID numbers are down, you have to wonder if Canadians will be excited by the thought of a federal election during a pandemic.
The current government will eventually be toppled. That’s what happens to minority governments. The two minority terms under former prime minister Stephen Harper lasted a remarkably long time, at 32 months (before Harper called an election) and at 30 months (before the opposition parties triggered an election).
Historically speaking, this minority government has outlived its shelf life.
This fall will mark two years since the last election. We’re due.
Don’t be surprised if the Liberals find a way to force an election on us, either by calling for one, or by coming up with legislation so wonky it will force the other parties to oppose it.
But outside of the Liberals, does anyone really want to go to the polls?
