LOS ANGELES (AP) 鈥� To run or not to run?
The crowded, wide-open race to succeed the late U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein in California has hit a suspenseful turn as candidates wait for to decide if she will enter the 2024 contest for her seat after being picked to complete the remainder of Feinstein鈥檚 term.
Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom installed Butler to fill the vacant post earlier this month, shortly after at 90 following a series of illnesses. The term ends in January 2025.
Butler, a Democratic insider and , had never held public office before joining the Senate. She now is considering whether to mount a campaign for a full, six-year term and join a contest that has been underway since January. It already features three prominent Democratic House members 鈥� Reps. Katie Porter, Adam Schiff and Barbara Lee 鈥� and , a former baseball MVP who entered the race Tuesday.
So far, Butler has been coy about her future plans, saying she鈥檚 had little time to think about what comes next amid the whirlwind of activity in Washington.
鈥淚鈥檓 going to be honest, I鈥檓 not considering very much at this point,鈥� she said in a recent interview with The Associated Press.
She only hinted at her thinking when interviewed Monday evening at Fortune magazine's Most Powerful Women conference in Laguna Niguel.
鈥淚t's an early job for me,鈥� she said, apparently referring to her brief time in Washington. 鈥淏ut my life has been one that has been dedicated to service and that is my commitment.鈥�
Her entry would reshuffle an already complex race in which the candidates are competing for one of two spots in the March 5 primary. Under California election rules, the two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the November general election, regardless of party.
In the crowded Senate field, a candidate could advance to November with a relatively small slice of the vote, perhaps as low as 22% or 23%.
To get in, Butler would face a daunting task for even an experienced politician: quickly assemble a campaign team that would include digital strategy and polling, devise a winning message to sell her candidacy to voters who mostly don鈥檛 know her and start to raise the millions of dollars she needs for TV advertising in the vast state.
Schiff, for comparison, has a $32 million head start and an endorsement from former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Mail ballots for the primary go out in early February, less than four months away. Many of the state鈥檚 top campaign operatives, including those who work for Newsom, already are pledged to other candidates.
鈥淚 think it鈥檚 doable, but the window is closing,鈥� said Democratic operative Rebecca Pearcey, whose resume includes serving as political director for Elizabeth Warren鈥檚 presidential campaign. 鈥淚t鈥檚 still a fairly open race."
But to Democratic consultant Garry 麻豆传媒AV, who has run six statewide campaigns in California, including for former Gov. Gray Davis, that window for Butler already is closed.
鈥淭here is no practical way in a state this big 鈥� to get a competitive, viable statewide campaign up and running鈥� in such a tight timeframe, 麻豆传媒AV said. He noted that much of Butler's time will be consumed by demands of her new job 鈥� and the narrow Democratic Senate majority assures there will be pressure to be in Washington for votes. Then she鈥檇 face time-sucking flights back to California to campaign.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 care if you have 鈥榮enator鈥� in front of your name or not,鈥� 麻豆传媒AV added. 鈥淚t can鈥檛 be done.鈥�
Newsom selected Butler Oct. 1, calling her the kind of candidate he would build 鈥渋f I had to literally design from my imagination.鈥� She became only the third Black female senator in history, and the first openly LGBTQ+ senator from California.
Prior to being appointed, Butler headed Emily鈥檚 List, a national organization that raises money for women candidates who support abortion rights. She also served as a senior adviser to Kamala Harris鈥� 2020 presidential campaign while working at a political firm founded by Newsom鈥檚 longtime strategists. She briefly worked in the private sector for Airbnb.
Her potential Democratic rivals have offered pleasantries since Butler was appointed.
Lee, who attended Butler's swearing in celebration, tweeted her congratulations and added, 鈥淚 am singularly focused on winning my campaign for Senate.鈥� Schiff, who also attended the festivities, tweeted his well wishes and said he looked forward to working with her. Porter praised her advocacy for working families and noted the historic importance of the appointment.
Pearcey noted that incumbency comes with its own value, including the ability to stay in the headlines and an in-house publicity operation.
鈥淢y recommendation would be to use the power of the office 鈥� showing she is delivering for the people of California is how I would start,鈥� Pearcey said. Then, on the campaign side, Butler could talk about Democratic legislative wins and building on Feinstein鈥檚 legacy.
In a crowded field in which the Democrats are mostly in agreement on policy, being a fresh face at the Capitol could be an asset with voters exhausted by Washington gridlock and bickering.
鈥淚 think that voter apathy toward Congress is going to be a liability鈥� for established lawmakers like Schiff, Lee and Porter, Pearcey said.
In an election season where the economy is a top issue, Butler 鈥渉as had nothing to do with gas prices and inflation,鈥� she added.
Raising money quickly is always a grind, and television ads can cost $2 million or more for just one week in the Los Angeles market.
A tougher, more sensitive prospect would be competing with Lee, who Black leaders and political activists had urged Newsom to appoint to the seat. California has a relatively small Black population at 6%, but those voters make up a core constituency for the Democratic Party.
鈥淭hey occupy the same space,鈥� Pearcey said, doubting that Butler would run attack ads against the long-serving congresswoman who is revered in the Black community.
A memo from Lee's campaign to her finance council late last month, before Feinstein's death and based on internal voter research, found awareness of the race was 鈥渆xtremely low鈥� and candidates remained largely unknown to many voters. It concluded in part that Lee needed to accelerate her fundraising to reach voters who would be receptive to her candidacy, after trailing Schiff and Porter in the money race thus far.
National Democratic fundraising could pose a challenge in 2024, since the California Senate seat is expected to stay in Democratic hands when control of the chamber will be decided elsewhere.
Butler has until Dec. 8 to decide if she'll enter the contest.
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AP writer Ayanna Alexander contributed from Washington.
Michael R. Blood, The Associated Press
