FAYETTEVILLE, Ga. (AP) 鈥� President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will meet for their first general election Thursday in , the battleground that yielded the closest 2020 margin of any state and became the epicenter of Trump鈥檚 efforts to overturn Biden鈥檚 election.
Now, in their rematch, Georgia will test which man can best assemble a winning coalition despite their respective weaknesses. Each must persuade grumpy voters in places like Fayette County, a suburb south of Atlanta, that they're less frightening than the alternative.
Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee for the third consecutive time, has been of felony crimes and awaits sentencing and three more criminal trials, including in Atlanta. That legal peril could exacerbate his struggles with moderate Republicans and independents, some of whom abandoned him as he helped dismantle the and refused to accept defeat in 2020.
Biden, the Democratic incumbent, has presided over an inflationary economy, struggled with a Middle East war that divides Democrats, and failed to resolve immigration problems along the southern U.S. border. He faces potential defections from nonwhite and younger voters.
One of Georgia鈥檚 richest counties, Fayette has long housed retirees and Delta Air Lines workers seeking homes near Atlanta鈥檚 airport. Now it's also a bastion of Georgia鈥檚 . At the Trillith development, a rapidly growing high-end town and movie studio, workers can be overheard discussing the latest Captain America movie being filmed there.
Like other Atlanta suburbs, the 120,000-resident county has been angling left. Democrats haven't yet deposed Fayette's Republican majority, but they got close in December 2022, when Democratic U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock won 49.5% of Fayette's votes in .
鈥淲e do believe that the pathway to the presidency comes right through Fayette County this year,鈥� said Joe Clark, chair of the Fayette County Democratic Party and a Fayetteville City Council member.
The Trump campaign on June 13 opened its first Georgia campaign office in Fayetteville.
"They want to try to flip our county," warned , a former Trump aide who recently clinched the for a Republican-leaning congressional seat.
Statewide, Republicans say Georgia still tilts toward them. Yes, Democrats won statewide four times in Georgia, starting with Biden in 2020, continuing as Jon Ossoff and Warnock swept to in a 2021 runoff that clinched Democratic control of the U.S. Senate, and culminating in Warnock's reelection in 2022. But GOP won a second term as governor in 2022 over Democrat by a , sweeping down-ballot offices along the way.
Lauren Groh-Wargo, Abrams' top strategist, said Democrats were slow to engage in Georgia in 2020. Both sides have been spending heavily this year.
鈥淭his is the first time since the 1990s that Georgia has been a top-tier battleground state for the presidential on both sides of the aisle, from the beginning of both campaigns,鈥� Groh-Wargo said.
Both sides have work to do. Many voters, Democrats and Republicans, say they鈥檙e dispirited by the Trump-Biden rematch. Some say they鈥檙e not sure that they will even vote.
independent bid is another wildcard. Kennedy hasn't been certified for the ballot, but he could make Georgia even harder to predict.
Some formerly solid Republicans have taken to splitting their tickets. Trump and Walker showed weakness in metro Atlanta even as Kemp remained strong.
, a southwest Georgia native who is Biden's principal deputy campaign manager and steered Warnock's 2022 campaign, estimates that Warnock won 9% of Republican voters.
鈥淐andidate quality matters,鈥� said Republican strategist Brian Robinson. Trump ignited 鈥渁 real realignment鈥� that drew working-class voters without college degrees toward Republicans, Robinson said, but has pushed away college-educated voters.
Some of those voters 鈥渟till want to vote for Republicans or are willing to,鈥� but only in the right circumstances. In Georgia鈥檚 Republican presidential primary in March, about 78,000 voters 鈥� most in metro Atlanta 鈥� voted for Nikki Haley over Trump even after Haley . Haley鈥檚 total was more than six times Biden鈥檚 2020 Georgia victory margin.
Fayette ranks seventh among Georgia鈥檚 159 counties in voters who backed Kemp but not Walker. Haley won 13.2% statewide, but nearly 19% in Fayette County.
Rhonda Quillian, shopping at a Peachtree City farmer's market, backed Haley. She says neither Biden nor Trump feel like an option for her. She's considering not voting at all.
Quillian said she liked Trump's policies after she voted for him in 2016, but soured on him, especially after the Jan. 6, 2021, .
"If he wasn鈥檛 such an egomaniac, I would vote for him in a skinny minute because of the policies," Quillian said. "But he鈥檚 a little scary when he starts talking and he鈥檚 trying to overthrow the election and being anti-Constitution and, you know, 鈥業鈥檓 the law.鈥� I鈥檓 sorry, no, this is a democratic republic.鈥�
For Biden, the challenge is replicating the coalition that delivered his razor-thin margin. Responding to warnings from Georgia Democrats that he , the president has visited routinely, and Vice President Kamala Harris has made five trips to Georgia this year.
鈥淲e have to talk to Black voters in both urban and rural Georgia," Fulks said. "That is where I start.鈥�
Trump has boasted that he will make inroads among . Robinson acknowledged it's unlikely Trump would get even a fifth of Black voters, but said he wouldn鈥檛 necessarily have to: Black voters typically account for about 30% of Georgia ballots. If some Black voters stay home, or Biden's share drops even a little, Trump could benefit.
Deidra Ellington, a counselor who lives in Fayetteville, calls the choice between Biden and Trump 鈥渟lim pickings.鈥� Ellington, who is Black, says she no longer feels allegiance to either party.
鈥淚t鈥檚 almost to a point where you鈥檙e not even able to live paycheck to paycheck,鈥� Ellington said. 鈥淵ou get the first paycheck, and then it鈥檚 borrowing in between before the next paycheck.鈥�
In an by The Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, more Democrats said Biden had hurt than helped on the cost of living and immigration. The Biden campaign has been trying to .
鈥淭he president deeply understands what Americans are going through, and also the fact that there is more work to do," Fulks said.
Republicans, meanwhile, aim to turn the election into a referendum on Biden's handling of the economy.
鈥淢y pitch is, are you happy with $4 a gallon gas and $6 for a jar of mayonnaise? If you鈥檙e not, it was not like that when Trump was in office,鈥� said Suzanne Brown, a Peachtree City Council member who has canvassed for Republicans this spring.
Democrats say they're , aiming to turn out marginal Democrats and persuade independents and moderate Republicans to back Biden. The campaign has a dozen offices and 75 staffers statewide, including some in Fayetteville.
鈥淚 think that Trump is underestimating the power of organizing," Fulks said.
Not so, says Republican National Committee spokesperson Henry Scavone. He says the Trump campaign has gone from zero offices to a dozen since June 13.
Republicans, aware voters are in a sour mood, are optimistic but not cocky about places like Fayette County.
鈥淚f the election were held today, Donald Trump would almost certainly win here,鈥� Robinson said. 鈥淏ut the election isn鈥檛 being held today.鈥�
鈥�-
Barrow reported from Atlanta.
Jeff Amy And Bill Barrow, The Associated Press
