Few elections in Saskatchewan history seem more of a foregone conclusion going into it than the one we are about to embark on in 2011.
I suppose you can point to the Roy Romanow NDP landslides in the early-to-mid-90s as ones where everyone knew what the result was going to be as soon as the writ was dropped. Everyone knew in 1991 Grant Devine was a dead man walking, and they were right.
There is a similar sense of inevitability going into this vote. Commentators and pundits are expecting Brad Wall and the Saskatchewan Party to blow out the NDP by an even bigger margin than last time.
The Saskatchewan Party has benefited mightily from the good economic times in the province. Things have been going well for the government - the province's fiscal position is more or less in good shape, they've stayed largely free of scandal and Wall has taken popular positions in support of trials for the MS liberation treatment and against the PotashCorp attempted takeover by BHP Billiton.
The opposition parties have a tough chore trying to compete with that. How do you tell voters it is time for a change against that backdrop?
"Change to what? Fewer jobs? Higher taxes? Our sons and daughters moving back to Alberta?"
That's part of the problem for the NDP - they are going to have a hard time convincing people they'll do any better than the current bunch in power. In fact, it's pretty hard to differentiate themselves from the government when they steal the same positions they take, such as on the PotashCorp takeover.
Adding to the problems of the NDP is a perception they are stale. The main problem is the party hasn't really developed many fresh new faces who could bring energy to the party and revitalize it in the legislature.
The current NDP caucus is full of the same people who've been there for years. The few rising stars the party has - Ryan Meili, Yens Pedersen for example - are largely not in the legislature at all. In Meili's case, he's not even running.
What the NDP really needs is renewal - just like the Saskatchewan Roughriders. Fortunately, they'll finally be able to get on with it after these NDP veterans are swept away by the Saskatchewan Party typhoon that is coming.
All the signposts are there. The now-famous Praxis Analytics poll this fall gave the Saskatchewan Party 63 percent and the NDP 26 per cent. If that holds up on election day, we are looking at somewhere around a 12-point swing to the Saskatchewan Party from the previous election.
I've taken a hard look at the 20 seats the NDP won in the last election. Many were won by comfortable margins and should survive swings of six or seven per cent, but 12 per cent is a different story. A swing this wide would reduce the NDP caucus to Athabaska and Cumberland up north and two or three bedrock seats each from Regina and Saskatoon. If they're lucky.
What's really scary for the NDP are the numbers Praxis Analytics was reporting from the cities. Their numbers out of Regina show the Saskatchewan Party at an incredible 62 per cent approval rating.
Quite frankly I find this poll unbelievable, as Regina ought to be NDP bedrock. If this result actually transpires on election day, the NDP might not save any seats there at all - not even Link.
It's not as if this poll is an outlier, though. Other polls and the string of byelection results over the past few years have consistently pointed to a likely swing to the Sask. Party of somewhere between eight to 12 per cent.
This consistently grim NDP outlook threatens to become the narrative of this campaign. It threatens to create a reverse bandwagon effect, a development that took down the federal Liberals in the 2011 campaign.
Everyone is talking about it. When even Les MacPherson is making jokes in the StarPhoenix about the sorry state of the NDP, we know they are in trouble.
The NDP now has one month to turn their fortunes around. That's the one thing they have going for them - the fact there will be a campaign, because campaigns take on a life of their own and crazy things do happen.
They do have ideas on rent control and on resource royalties that should differentiate them from the Saskatchewan Party. Their game plan has to be to put out positive ideas and get people thinking positively about them during the campaign. If the poll numbers start to go up, that will be one more thing they can be positive about.
The other thing going for them is that 2011 has been a good year in general for the NDP across the country both at the federal and provincial level.
Earlier this year Dwain Lingenfelter told me how proud the provincial party was of the federal NDP's election showing. The federal party was counted out, he said, but was able to beat the odds.
Here's the difference, though. Part of the reason I think the NDP has fared better across the country has to do with the economy in the rest of the country being in the tank. Here, times have been good.
Another more telling difference: in May 2011, in the traditional NDP heartland of Saskatchewan, with a popular leader during the best federal election they ever had, the NDP still couldn't win a federal seat.
If they can't win federally during a good year for the NDP, what hope do they have provincially? The NDP have their work cut out for them in the coming weeks, folks.
