Welcome to May at the movie theatres. Normally it is around this time that I come out with my annual Summer Blockbuster predictions with the traditional start of the season that runs through Labour Day.
Of course, those plans are in the trash due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The cinemas remain slammed shut across North America and the situation remains muddled to say the least, as we do not know when or whether the cinemas will reopen in full.
Already there are some moves by the U.S. states to open up, most notoriously in the state of Georgia where the governor threw open the entire economy including all of the state鈥檚 movie theatres 鈥� despite plenty of COVID-19 cases still in the state.
A lot of chains like AMC say they are going to stay shut, despite these pronouncements, and no wonder. Besides the fact that the pandemic is still raging in a lot of places, the reality is there is little for these chains to show. All the blockbuster releases scheduled for around now have been pushed back.
If you really want to pin me down on whether you鈥檒l see cinemas re-open, I鈥檓 going out on a limb to say yes, cinemas will re-open at some point this summer, but likely at no more than 50 percent capacity. Of course, if there is a 鈥渟econd wave鈥� of the virus in the fall, cinemas could end up closing again. We are clearly not going to be back to normal for a while.
Obviously, predicting box office gross numbers is impossible in this environment. The only thing you can predict with certainty is that the numbers for summer 2020 are going to be bad to the point of non-existent. For movies scheduled for summer release dates, they could end up pushed back again due to new COVID-19 developments.
Instead, I think the best thing for me to do is provide some sort of update on what is happening with the blockbuster movies that were expected to dominate this summer-that-never-was, which have been postponed to later release dates:
Black Widow, the Marvel movie slated for May 1 starring Scarlett Johansson, is now slated for release on Nov. 6.
The Personal History of David Copperfield, slated for May 8, pushed back to a date TBD.
Spiral: From the Book of Saw, slated for May 15, will now be released at a new date to be determined.
F9 The Fast Saga, slated for May 22, is now coming out on April 9, 2021.
Wonder Woman 1984, slated for June 5, now is due out a couple of months later on Aug. 14.
Soul, a Disney-Pixar release slated for June 19, is now due out Nov. 20.
Top Gun: Maverick, slated for June 24, now comes out Dec. 23.
Ghostbusters: Afterlife, slated for July 10, now is pushed back to March 5, 2021.
Tenet, from Christopher Nolan, slated for July 17, is as of now still scheduled to go at this time. We will see if this date still holds. There is some speculation out there that it might get bumped to an August release.
Jungle Cruise, featuring Dwayne Johnson, which was slated for July 24, is now due out July 30, 2021.
That clears out most of the big releases from the summer of 2020. What we are left with are a lot of 鈥渓imited鈥� releases and efforts that may be rolled out on digital instead of in cinemas. According to the release schedule posted on Box Office Mojo, out on the May 1 weekend are The Wretched and Dream Horse; on May 8 it is Spaceship Earth (a documentary about Biosphere 2), How to Build a Girl (based on Caitlin Moran鈥檚 novel), Valley Girl (which is a musical comedy), and the one so-called wide release of the bunch, The High Note starring Dakota Johnson.
These may be good movies, but are not what you would consider 鈥渟ummer blockbusters鈥�. To be honest, I don鈥檛 know where you are going to find a cinema that plays these movies given all the closures, so look for these titles on digital platforms.
All in all, this is shaping up as a surreal and sad summer for movie fans who make it an annual tradition to flock to cinemas to enjoy the popcorn and beat the heat. I know from my own experience living in hot and humid places (Ontario) that going to movies in the summertime is a great way to enjoy some high-quality air conditioning. Trust me, you needed all the relief you could get on those muggy, smoggy days and nights.
But with this wretched COVID-19 pandemic continuing to do its damage on society in general, that whole plan is up in smoke. Even if these cinemas do open by July, there isn鈥檛 likely to be much to see for a while.
It is shaping up to be a long, hot summer, in every way.
听
