The legislature has been out of action for a while, so lately I have been getting my Question Period fix tuning in the British House of Commons.
It鈥檚 fascinating stuff, watching new Prime Minister Boris Johnson struggling to keep control of his Brexit agenda against an opposition determined to have their own way. Most recently, Johnson booted out about 20 members of his own party who stood up against a no-deal Brexit.
The result of all this is total deadlock in the British House of Commons. Not only does Johnson not have enough votes to force Brexit through, he doesn鈥檛 even have enough votes in favour of calling an election, because the opposition is too afraid of losing their seats. He even tried to suspend Parliament, but the Supreme Court overturned that.
On this side of the pond, the smug people of Canada are surely looking at this utter gong show and doubling over in laughter.听
Well, folks, I suggest you quit laughing so hard, because the latest election polls in Canada still show the Liberals and Tories neck and neck and too close to call.
Lots of folks say this campaign is similar to 1972, which saw a sitting prime minister by the name of Trudeau 鈥� Pierre 鈥� barely hold on with a minority government against Conservative opponent Robert Stanfield.
For me, it feels similar to 2004, Stephen Harper鈥檚 first election, which saw a majority Liberal government under Paul Martin reduced to a shaky minority status. That campaign was also vicious, with social issues and negative TV ads dominating the election.
This 2019 vote has been just as bad, except now we also have to contend with all the negativity on social media.听听
In 2019, the Liberals held 177 seats at dissolution, seven over the majority number. This is too close for comfort. Keep in mind the Liberals made historic gains in the 2015 vote by sweeping the entire Atlantic region, winning several seats in British Columbia and major gains in Quebec. These include seats the Liberals typically never win in any election, seats that figure to swing back home to the other parties this time.听
The difficult chore of retaining their majority has been made worse by the scandal-ridden campaign the Liberals have run.
Last column, I wrote about the 16 reasons why Canadians have booted prime ministers from Louis St. Laurent to Stephen Harper. My point was to show that Canadian voters seem especially willing to let Justin Trudeau off the hook for one misdeed after another, things they were quick to toss out other prime ministers for.听听听
鈥淏rownface,鈥� however, is a new one. Somehow, I can鈥檛 imagine Stephen Harper or Paul Martin or Kim Campbell or any of these other defeated Prime Ministers ever doing anything like this. Or for that matter, ever having a scandal like this.
These revelations about Trudeau are bad and embarrassing, and a new low point for politics in this country.听听
Despite the multitude of campaign gifts this current prime minister has given them, Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives seem unable to break free.
One reason is simply because Scheer just isn鈥檛 an exciting personality who鈥檚 ever going to attract the big crowds. But his main problem is that the Liberals, and their allies in the media, are getting desperate.
There have been attacks on Scheer over social issues such as abortion and gay rights. There have been attacks over his insurance qualifications. Then they were attacking him because of his dual Canadian-American citizenship.听
Next thing you know, they鈥檒l attack Scheer for buying coffee at McDonald鈥檚 instead of Tim Hortons. It really is getting comical.
For the Conservatives, a big hurdle is simple mathematics. They need to pick up a lot of seats to win a majority. The magic number for a majority is 170 seats out of 338. At dissolution, they held 95 seats. That means they need 75 additional seats to get a majority. That鈥檚 a heck of a lot of incumbents they must knock off.
As it stands, Conservatives are poised to gain a few on the Prairies, a few more in British Columbia, a few in the Atlantic, and a few in Ontario and Quebec.
That鈥檚 not enough. They need major gains, such as 20 or 30 seats in Ontario and 20 or 30 in Quebec and 15 in Atlantic Canada, to have a real shot at a majority. Scheer himself surely knows this, because he鈥檚 been running around Ontario and Quebec throughout this campaign.
As for the NDP, their main hope is in those areas in 鈥淓nglish Canada鈥� where their incumbents are seeking re-election. But Quebec is a different story. Polls have them running fourth there, which would take down the NDP鈥檚 entire Quebec representation.
What鈥檚 surely saved them has been the good performance of leader Jagmeet Singh on the campaign trail, especially in the debates. Now, it looks like the NDP has momentum and they may not do so badly after all.
The Greens? As much as the media plays up Elizabeth May鈥檚 chances, we all know the Greens do better in opinion polls than Election Day. The greater prospect is that Greens will split the progressive vote, costing the NDP and Liberals their seats.
The People鈥檚 Party of Canada will be lucky if Maxime Bernier hangs onto his riding.
From what I see we are looking at 20-30 NDP, possibly five Greens, maybe one People鈥檚 Party, and possibly one or two Independents: Jody Wilson-Raybould and maybe Jane Philpott.
The wild card is the Bloc Quebecois.
Polls indicate the Bloc could make a comeback in Quebec. Pundits are saying leader Yves-Fran莽ois Blanchet scored big in the TVA French-language debate. The thinking is that Blanchet has made the Bloc relevant again, and that they鈥檒l win a chunk of new seats.
Bottom line: I see the Liberals and Conservatives fighting to win 140-150 or more seats, with the smaller parties fighting for the rest. That, as we say in the English language, is a 鈥淗ung Parliament.鈥�
Should it happen, it will be a mess.
People are speculating the Liberals could hang on to power with a coalition with the NDP and the Greens, even if the Conservatives won the most seats.
But let鈥檚 say the Liberals get 140, the NDP 20, the Greens five, and Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott get in as two independents.
All together, that is 167, three short of a majority, which means the balance of power would come down to the Bloc Quebecois and whatever their seat count is. Trudeau would then need a deal with the Bloc to stay in power.
Trudeau? The Bloc?
Justin鈥檚 father Pierre would be spinning in his grave. So would Rene Levesque.
As for the Conservatives, how the hell do they work with the Bloc? Seriously?
These parties are polar opposites on policy. Besides, the idea of Scheer working with the separatists is bound to land with a thud with his own supporters in western Canada.
Here鈥檚 another scenario. Let鈥檚 say the Conservatives get 151 seats and the Bloc 18. And let鈥檚 say Bernier wins his seat. Added together, that鈥檚 170.听
The prospect of having to do a deal with (a) the Bloc and (b) Bernier surely must keep Scheer up at night.
Hey, Conservatives, at least this is better than Singh and May supporting a Trudeau minority government! Good luck getting pipelines built in this country ever again if that happens.听
Of course, there is still time for Canada to pull itself away from the hung parliament cliff in time for Oct. 21. Some major scandal could still erupt, or Canadians could wake up and smell the coffee.
But I doubt it.
Do you know what these newest polls are saying? They say the NDP is gaining towards 20 per cent nationally and that the Bloc is now in the lead in the province of Quebec.
If the Bloc gets the most votes in Quebec, it won鈥檛 be 15 or 20 seats they get. It鈥檒l be more like 30 or 40, at least.听听
The bottom line is Canadians need to quit laughing at the U.K., or at Israel (two elections in one year) or the United States (Trump impeachment) or other countries that have political deadlocks happening.
We are on the brink of Hung Parliament here, whether we want it or not.
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