Just over two weeks after their previous forecast, the Saskatchewan Watershed authority (SWA) has released an update of potential spring runoff conditions for the province.
The latest report identifies the potential for well above normal spring runoff for a large portion of the eastern agricultural area from Elbow to Yorkton, north of Weyburn to south of Melfort. This western edge of this area is a diagonal line between Elbow and Melfort that runs just east of Humboldt.
Humboldt is on the southern edge of the Carrot River Watershed, which is part of the Saskatchewan River Basin. The city is also on the northern edge of the Upper Qu'Appelle River Watershed, which is part of the Qu'Appelle River Basin.
High water levels are expected to continue on Fishing Lake and the Quill Lakes. The SWA expects significant spring inflow, which is projected as potentially resulting in extremely high water levels.
The possibility for a well above normal runoff also exists for the extreme southwest for the area bounded by Kindersley, Saskatoon, Prince Albert and North Battleford.
The SWA has also identified the potential for an above normal spring runoff throughout all of southern Saskatchewan.
These conditions are linked to excessive summer and fall rainfall across the agricultural portion of the province in 2010, combined with above average snowpack conditions in the west and well above normal snowpack conditions in the east.
Unfavourable weather conditions this spring, such as above normal precipitation and/or rapid snow melt, will increase the threat of high runoff and risk of flooding. Even with average weather conditions between now and runoff, some localized flooding can be anticipated, the SWA noted.
Below normal precipitation and/or a slow snow melt will alleviate the threat.
The SWA will release more detailed runoff forecasts in early March and April.
