Congratulations to Herb Cox, Len Taylor, Ryan Bater and Owen Swiderski for an energetic and exciting race in the Battlefords. It made for a much more interesting election around here than would otherwise have been the case, given the runaway provincial results with the Saskatchewan Party winning 49 seats and taking 64 per cent of the vote.
A few are probably looking for some sort of analysis or explanation as to why the Battlefords voted the way it did, electing Cox by a 1,000 vote margin.
There's an easy explanation for Cox's win. It can be summed up in two words: Brad Wall.
Actually, there's more to it, but when your leader runs a competent government in a booming resource economy and keeps most of his promises, those factors go a long way.
The groundwork was laid by the Saskatchewan Party in the riding long before this election. Among other things, the government did not ignore the Battlefords when it came to crucial projects. There was $6 million for twinning of Highway 4 in Battleford. There was money for a new BTEC facility. They made the deal with the City to fund three new police officers to fight high crime rates. And there was $8 million for detailed planning for Saskatchewan Hospital.
The opposition couldn't claim the Saskatchewan Party was ignoring the Battlefords with all this going on. Another reason local issues didn't play a huge role in the final result was that the NDP supported many of these same projects. Had the Sask. Party ignored these items, it might have been a different story.
Why did Taylor lose? He simply got caught up in the massive tide towards the Sask. Party. Taylor took the riding by only a little over 300 votes in the previous election. That margin was never going to hold up against a Sask. Party tide like we saw last week. It didn't matter how much name recognition and experience Taylor had going for him, just as it didn't matter for Dwain Lingenfelter and other NDP MLAs.
The larger question becomes: why did the NDP lose so badly across Saskatchewan? I do not believe the NDP lost because of its campaign organization, or because they weren't hard-hitting enough or because of Lingenfelter's leadership. Instead, they lost on policy. Period.
Granted, they started off on the right foot when they brought forward the policy to put resource money away into a Bright Futures Fund, a policy they announced on the first day of the campaign. The problem was the NDP wouldn't stop - they announced one thing after another, whether it would be reviving the school dental program or sharing resource revenues with the First Nations, or daycare, or other issues many did not care much about. Then they came up with this plan to pay for it by raising royalty rates from potash, and all that did was scare people who worried it would drive investment out of the province.
The bottom line is voters were worried these policies might mess with current prosperity, and they went with the Sask. Party. In an odd way, though, the thorough housecleaning last Monday was exactly what the party needed. Now, they can get on with turning over a new leaf, embracing the new generation in the party and get serious about rebuilding.
Taylor's political career spans 23 years, but maybe it's not over. Next year is a municipal election year, and you would think there's a seat in council chambers with Taylor's name on it, just waiting to be grabbed. In any case I am not convinced this is the political end of the line for Taylor. He may yet rise to fight again.
I'll tell you who has reached the end of the line: the Saskatchewan Liberals.
Well, at least it is extremely close. After all the claims from Ryan Bater's campaign about momentum and a groundswell of support there is only one word to describe their showing: embarrassing.
Bater has said he and his party have some soul-searching to do, and they have to after this vote. People are wondering how Bater could have posted such a result when they had signs everywhere on lawns, in ditches, in farmer's fields, everywhere. Signs do not vote. People do.
Now here's the brutal truth about why people didn't vote for Bater. While people liked and respected Bater and his platform, too many folks thought his party was a lost cause. Also, I think many centre and centre-right voters deliberately didn't vote for him precisely because they wanted the Liberals to stay a lost cause.
Bater tried to make the case during the campaign it would benefit the legislature to have a third party voice. In theory he's right, but most non-NDP voters rejected that notion a long time ago. A main reason the Sask. Party was founded in the first place was because opponents of the NDP were sick and tired of the three-party system. Vote-splitting between the Liberals and PCs was putting the NDP into office, they said. I think they're still of that view today. Many who liked what Bater stood for nevertheless said "what good is voting Liberal going to do? It'll only put in the NDP!"
I don't think many non-NDP voters are interested in giving the Liberals any wiggle-room to revive themselves now that a viable centre-right party is able to command the centre-right vote and win elections. It's a long road ahead for Liberals in Saskatchewan. The two-party system is alive and well, and Sask. Party voters like it that way.
