WEYBURN — Jake Leguee’s durum crop started out promising with plenty of moisture.
“Down in our area it was a struggle getting the crop in,” said Leguee, who farms between Weyburn and Fillmore in southeastern Saskatchewan.
“We had a tremendous amount of water laying around after that April snowstorm.”
But the weather turned hot and dry starting in late May. There were a couple of small June showers and then the taps turned off completely.
“The durum crop deteriorated more rapidly than I think I’ve ever really seen before,” said Leguee.
He thought the crop would have hung on longer than it did due to the favourable subsoil moisture levels to start the year.
But with the crop drying down rapidly and harvest quickly approaching, he is expecting a yield in the mid-30 bushel per acre range, which is about 20 bu. below normal for his area.
Quality should be good if the crop avoids a heavy harvest downpour, although test weight could be an issue. The kernels are looking “a little thin.”
MarketsFarm analyst Bruce Burnett was forecasting a national average durum yield of 26 bu. per acre at his July 19 presentation at the Ag in Motion show.
That would be down from the previous five-year average of 37.3 bu. per acre (excluding the 2021 drought year).
Burnett was forecasting total Canadian production of 4.09 million tonnes, down 25 percent from last year.
But Leguee, who is vice-chair of the Saskatchewan Wheat Development Commission, said the crop has further deteriorated since Burnett’s presentation.
He thinks the production number will start with a three, although it will likely be higher than the 3.2 million tonnes produced in 2021.
There hasn’t been as much heat as there was in 2021 when temperatures reached 28 C or higher for 25 days in July on his farm. This year that happened three times.
“That will mitigate some of the damage,” he said.
However, there has been a lot less rain in the area than there was in 2021.
Leguee has seen some new crop bids of $15 per bu. He believes there is room for those bids to rise, although he is aware that customers such as Algeria back away when durum prices get too high.
“I don’t know where that line is, but I think there’s room to run a little bit more yet on durum pricing,” he said.
“We’re holding tight until we see what the crop actually looks like on our farm.”
Fifty-eight percent of North Dakota’s durum crop was rated good or excellent on Aug. 6. That compares to 16 percent in Saskatchewan as of July 31 and 30 percent in Alberta on July 25.
“Right now, most producers indicate the crop is showing average yield potential,” the North Dakota Wheat Commission said in its Aug. 1 crop report.
Montana is in worse shape with 23 percent of the crop in the good to excellent categories as of Aug. 6.
DTN reports that Italy’s durum crop is facing quality issues because of excessive rainfall in May and the first half of June.
The crop has low test weights and problems with black point kernels.
The quality issues combined with low carryover stocks from the previous year have caused durum prices to “rise furiously” in Italy.
Top quality durum was fetching US$507 per tonne Aug. 2, up from $138 per tonne June 28, according to DTN.
“One thing is certain: Italy desperately needs to import durum wheat this year more than usual, especially durum of good quality,” Rossella Polito, an Italian durum wheat producer, told DTN.
She wonders where that durum will come from considering North America’s production problems.
“It will be a very interesting year for farmers with a crop to sell,” said Polito.
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