You get what Dwain Lingenfelter and the NDP are doing.
With 29 rural seats and 29 urban and northern seats in the Saskatchewan legislature, politics in this province has been neatly divided between the Saskatchewan Party stronghold and the NDP stronghold. Even if a party exclusively sweeps its own stronghold, it needs to make in-roads elsewhere.
This is especially important to Lingenfelter's New Democrats for a couple of reasons. First, a lot of rural seats still have high NDP party memberships, meaning there is money to be raised in rural Saskatchewan for the NDP.
Second, after the NDP won all but one urban seat in 1991, 1995, 1999 and all but three on 2003, the Sask. Party gained some significant momentum in urban Saskatchewan in 2007 last election with 10 urban wins (five seats in Saskatoon, three in Regina one each in Moose Jaw and Prince Albert). With an upgrading of candidates in a couple of these urban seats, the Sask. Party has a good chance of strengthening the urban foothold even more.
That will mean that the NDP may hake to make in-roads in rural Saskatchewan just to maintain the 20-member caucus it now has. And that won't be easy given the NDP's worst-ever showing in rural Saskatchewan in 2007.
It wasn't just that the NDP only won one rural seat in 2007 (Len Taylor in The Battlefords with 43 per cent). It was the way it lost the remaining rural ridings. Of those 29 rural Sask. Party victories, 20 were by more than 60 per cent of the popular vote and five were by more than 70 per cent.
So maybe the recent whispers from NDP circles about a major break through in rural Saskatchewan in 2011 needs to be put in a bit of perspective.
Certainly, there are signs of rural discontent out there - what Lingenfelter described in a recent news release of "common theme" of people feeling "ignored and disrespected by the Wall government".
"Whether it's bed closures, doctor shortages, power rate hikes or the slow and weak response to disaster assistance, people tell me the Wall government takes them and their communities for granted,"
Lingenfelter said, adding the closure of SaskPower offices in Assiniboia, Biggar, Humboldt, Kamsack, Rosthern, and Weyburn has rural people feeling betrayed by the Sask. Party that they whole-heartedly endorsed in 2007.
If Lingenfelter's only point was that bloom is somewhat off the rose in rural Saskatchewan and that no one should expect a repeat of the 60- and 70-per-cent wins in 2011, he might have a point.
One might even go out on a limb and suggest that the NDP has the potential to win two or three rural seats next time.
But to hear New Democrats talk about massive frustration out there right now and the potential of winning Cypress Hills that veteran Sask. Party MLA Wayne Elhard won by 75.7 per cent of the vote in 2007 would seem laughable.
Sure, Maple Creek residents are frustrated by the slowness in response to flood damages. Certainly, farmers in Cypress Hills and everywhere else are just simply frustrated by this year's weather. Some will be quick to point out the government just hasn't helped. But for anyone to think that means a flip of the Sask. Party's safest seat that the NDP has never won is borderline crazy.
Credit should be given to Lingenfelter for the massive number of kilometres he's logged in hostile rural Saskatchewan territory this summer - especially in places like Cypress Hills and Kindersley where the NDP has no hope of winning.
But any talk of an NDP breakthrough in rural Saskatchewan next election should be seen as party hype that's mostly about rallying the troops.
Murray Mandryk has been covering provincial politics for over 15 years.
