Governments get elected, but it may be more accurate to say that governments get unelected. In other words, one big problem for an incumbent government is that it is already being judged on its track record.
That’s not always an advantage if a government is governing in tough economic times that force it to make tough, unpopular choices. And if those tough decisions happen to be combined with the longevity of a government, voters will question why the government hasn’t addressed the problems they’ve had ample time to fi x.
What also always weighs heavily on voters’ minds is perceived government scandal – something that has cost Canadian governments power from John A. Macdonald’s Pacifi c Scandal to Jean Chretien’s Ad Scam. (And in the U.S., who will ever forget Watergate?)
Finally, there are the less tangible factors like the relative popularity or unpopularity of the government leader versus that of the opposition leader. But while one might think all the above leaves the incumbent government at a decided advantage, this isn’t necessarily the case.
Maybe the recent Alberta election showed us that voters are willing to only take so much from a veteran government during tough times when the premier is seen as out of touch.
However, fear of the unknown – something we are clearly seeing on the federal scene when it comes to the national voters’ views of the NDP and Thomas Mulcair or the Liberals’ Jobs, population growth will pull Wall through Justin Trudeau – can be a far bigger factor. So let’s put all this in the context of Saskatchewan that nears the end of its second term.
Yes, the weakening oil economy, slowdown in manufacturing and housing construction and a potentially tough year on the farm are worrisome for Premier Brad Wall’s government. Also, wasted money on smart meters and the $40-million health care lean initiative efficiency program, overcrowded schools that can no longer afford desks, phones and computers, emergency and surgical ward problems and declining rural and long-term care and rough roads have some wondering where all of that oil windfall has gone.
And under a different premier (Wall’s approval rating has slipped, but is still at a nation’s best 60 per cent) seeking a third term in Saskatchewan would certainly not be a given. No non- CCF/NDP government has won three consecutive elections since the Liberals in 1929.
But governments that are successful over the long haul are success because they have a certain way of addressing the core issues that are most important to the people.
Two recent press releases illustrate that what is going on in Wall’s Saskatchewan suggest his government is accomplishing what matters most to people of this province.
The first press release announced that despite the slowing economy, Saskatchewan remains one of the fastest growing provinces in Canada with 1,134,402 people as of April 1. That is an increase of 1,762 people in the past three months and 14,273 more people in the past year.
Admittedly, governments don’t control population growth and the growth did start a couple years before Wall came to power in 2007. But a province once known for giving away its
children to other provinces, adding 139,475 in a decade is more than a remarkable achievement.
And it’s ample reason for the voters to trust what Wall is doing.
In a similar vein, there were 582,700 people working in Saskatchewan in June – the most ever in the history of this province.
Also, Saskatchewan’s 4.9-per-cent unemployment rate was again the lowest in the country for the 20th consecutive month.
For a province that saw its children leave the province for decades looking for work, this is fantastic news. And it’s also why Wall and his Sask. Party government are likely heading for a big third, majority.
