The various groundhogs of fame, Wiarton Willy and Punxsutawney Phil among them, are often thought of as the harbingers of spring.
Sports fans know this is not the case.
The real sign of spring is the return of baseball players to the fabulous diamonds of green.
It’s not the case of spring training being of particular interest, unless you are deeply invested in the possible future of your team. The veterans play just enough to work themselves back into shape, which is less critical today with year-round conditioning regimes.
For the minor leaguers getting a look, spring training is a huge opportunity to catch a coach’s eye and move up the ranks, but for fans it’s a bit like watching the balls bouncing in a lottery draw and guessing just which ones will roll out as winners.
But then we hit opening day of the regular season. There might be two-feet of snow on the ground outside the window and a chill wind may be blowing, but spring arrives with the first pitch.
For the Toronto Blue Jays, the first pitch will be delivered tomorrow (Mar. 29), as Canada’s team hosts the dreaded New York Yankees. It is the first time since 2013 that the Jays will start the campaign at home.
So what should we expect of the Jays in 2018?
Realistically, the team could climb past 90 wins and be in contention for a wild card spot.
Or, just as likely they drop to 75 wins and be an afterthought in the standings by July.
Go through the likely opening day roster of the Jays and you can create a mirage with a lot of upside, beginning with the starting pitchers. Two years ago, Aaron Sanchez had the stuff to make us believe he could be Cy Young-material one day. He was basically out all last season with blisters, so does he immediately become the ace, falter as the sophomore jinx catches him, or succumb to perennial blister issues?
Last year, 16-wins from Sanchez would have put Toronto in the mix. They reasonably need that from him again.
J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada are both a year-older, and likely not a year better, but they have to be out there every fifth day for most of the regular season and be winning games regularly, because the starting depth for the Jays is paper-thin.
The closer role is one of the big question marks, too. Roberto Osuna can be lights out. He had 39-saves in 2017. He also led the American League in blown saves with 10. Had half of those saves been wins, the team would have inched closer to serious contention last year. It will be the same scenario this summer.
The middle infield is a mystery box.
Ryan Goins is gone. Troy Tulowitzki is over paid, always injured and, frankly, a boat anchor dragging on the Jays. Devon Travis is too often injured to be relied on, either.
Newcomers Yangervis Solarte and Aledmys Diaz will need to be very good to secure middle infield defence.
The outfield will be alright, although none of the options are all-star material. Curtis Granderson, Kevin Pillar, and Randal Grischuk should be solid but only Grischuk has a serious upside.
Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Alford are two in the minors that hold promise. Alford looks to have the tools to start and by July he could be in the bigs.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are the names in the minors we should dream on most, but whether that dream starts in 2018 is a question mark as big as how the Jays might do this year.
For the record I suspect they will create an illusion of contention early, but fade out of the wild card hunt before the excitement of September baseball.
