HOUSTON, Texas — U.S. agriculture secretary Tom Vilsack says the United States is trying to regain its competitive edge in world agricultural markets.
He told delegates attending the 2024 Commodity Classic conference that for many years the U.S. had better transportation logistics than its competitors and that gave the country a price advantage in overseas markets.
But that competitive advantage has evaporated due to large infrastructure investments by Brazil and Argentina.
“That price difference over time has disappeared,” said Vilsack.
It’s why the U.S. “doubled down” with the passing of the Bipartisan Infrastructure deal in 2021, a bill that will result in improved roads and bridges, ports and locks and dams.
But those investments will take time to come to fruition. In the meantime, the U.S. is going to attempt to boost exports through increased funding of export promotion programs, said Vilsack.
Todd Hultman, lead analyst for DTN, told farmers that spot corn futures will likely trade in the range of $4 to $5.25 per bushel in 2024-25, while soybeans will likely bounce around between $11 and $14 per bu.
His colleague John Baranick, DTN’s ag meteorologist, told U.S. growers to expect a hot spring and summer.
He is forecasting wet spring conditions in the northern and eastern portions of the country, while the summer will by dry throughout much of the Plains region.
Arlan Suderman, chief economist with StoneX, said Brazil’s soybean crop is getting bigger.
The company surveyed its farmer customers in that country, and they indicated that the crop could be 151.6 million tonnes, up 1.2 million tonnes from its previous forecast.
Corn production is pegged at 124.5 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous forecast, considering growers just finished planting the second crop of corn.
Suderman said a lot of those Brazilian soybeans will be heading to China, which appears to be stockpiling a wide variety of crops.
“So why are they buying?” he said during a live taping of the U.S. Farm Report at the 2024 Commodity Classic.
One theory is that the government is buying a large amount of corn and other crops from its
That is also creating an inviting environment for imports. But those imports are increasingly being supplied by Brazil and Ukraine, while U.S. crops are slowly being squeezed out, said Suderman.
Chip Flory, editor emeritus of Pro Farmer and host of AgriTalk, wonders if China is preparing for an invasion of Taiwan.
Suderman thinks that is a distinct possibility. Chinese president Xi Jinping has stated that he is going to bring Taiwan back into the fold during his tenure in office and he is 70 years old.
Flory wonders if the political landscape is setting up for another trade war between China and the U.S. if Donald Trump is re-elected as U.S. president.
If that happens, growers should prepare for another round of direct subsidies to offset the loss of that market.
Carah Hart, president of the National Association of Farm Broadcasting, spoke about the threat that electric vehicles pose to radio broadcasters.
Car manufacturers say electromagnetic interference in electric vehicles causes static and limited coverage with AM radio.
Despite mitigation solutions, some EV manufacturers have stopped putting AM radios in their cars.
Hart said that is having a huge detrimental impact for farm broadcasters around the country.
She encouraged delegates attending the general session of the Commodity Classic to support the AM Radio for Every Vehicle Act, which would require access to AM broadcast stations in motor vehicles.
